Oscar Picks 2011
Before I continue, I thought I’d point out that those who follow me on Facebook know that I made predictions for the Oscars way back in October. Those predictions can still be found in my Notes tab. While I certainly learned not to make predictions so early, I have to say I wasn’t too far off. I only got two of the ten Best Picture nominees wrong (I made a last-second decision to swap out The King’s Speech for Fair Game). For Best Actor, I couldn’t foresee Javier Bardem getting nominated even two weeks ago and Mark Ruffalo was nominated in a supporting role instead of lead, which makes sense in hindsight. Basically, I expected too much from Fair Game and The Town and was way off on the animated and foreign film categories. Check it out and compare by clicking on the Facebook badge on the right.
Here are my first (and sometimes 2nd) choices for who will take home this year’s Oscars:
Original Score:
o How to Train Your Dragon
X Inception
o The King’s Speech
o 127 Hours
X The Social Network
I usually don’t pay this award much attention, but this year’s nominees are an impressive bunch, with the exception of the score to The King’s Speech, which I have to admit I didn’t find to be all that memorable or strong. A. R. Rahman knocked out another solid score that perfectly compliments Danny Boyle’s direction in 127 Hours and How to Train Your Dragon is one of the most solid scores I’ve heard in a long time. But I’m betting none of those will match the iconic thundering brass of Inception or the minimalist techno of Trent Reznor’s score to The Social Network, which won the Golden Globe for this category.
Best Animated Film:
o How to Train Your Dragon
o The Illusionist
X Toy Story 3
I have not seen The Illusionist, but I do know it is by the makers of 2004’s superb Triplets of Belleville, so I have no doubt The Illusionist is very deserving of its nomination – probably more so than Despicable Me or Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole. That said, while How to Train Your Dragon is a wonderful spectacle with a very touching relationship at its core, it is no match for Toy Story 3, a film so exceptionally realized that I’ve heard several different interpretations of what could be going on under the surface. Since Pixar, with good reason, has won this award for most of its history, Toy Story 3 is a safe bet.
Best Original Screenplay:
o Another Year by Mike Leigh
o The Fighter by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson
X Inception by Christopher Nolan
o The Kids Are All Right by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
o The King’s Speech by David Seidler
I’ve only seen three of the five nominees (Another Year and The Fighter were missed). Of those three, I have to say the script wasn’t the most exceptional aspect of The Kids Are All Right and The King’s Speech has a strong, if conventional, screenplay. But Nolan’s ability to write a complex story without letting it get too incoherent or condescending for the audience is the biggest achievement here.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
o 127 Hours by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
X The Social Network by Aaron Sorkin
o Toy Story 3 by Michael Arndt
o True Grit by the Coen Bros.
o Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
I have not read the source material for any of these films, but I have no idea how Toy Story 3 qualifies here. Regardless, all nominees feature excellent writing, but none more so than Sorkin’s 162-page script, which was performed in two hours, yet managed to be clever and crafty enough to be much more than a story about choosing ambition over friends.
Best Supporting Actress:
o Amy Adams (The Fighter)
o Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
o Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
X Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
o Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
I have yet to see The Fighter and the Animal Kingdom DVD is waiting near my TV for me to watch, so I’m not as informed here as in other categories. But Hailee Steinfeld was robbed of a Best Actress nod for the purpose of political maneuvering. She would deserve it, since her Mattie Ross is among the best characters of 2010. However, Melissa Leo won the Golden Globe in this category for her performance as the manipulative mother/manager in The Fighter. The Academy may also prefer her.
Best Supporting Actor:
o Christian Bale (The Fighter)
o John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
o Jeremy Renner (The Town)
X Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
o Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
This is a rather solid line-up with scarcely a dark horse to be seen. John Hawkes received a heap of praise from critics for his turn as an intimidating, yet loyal, uncle. Jeremy Renner received notice upon The Town’s release (a film unfortunately squeezed out of most major awards). He may have to wait a while before he can add another golden man to his mantle. I loved Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right and find him to be underappreciated this awards season. I’d like him to be handed the award having given us an interestingly dichotomous character. But the most likely winner - unless Golden Globe winner Christian Bale takes it from him - is Geoffrey Rush. His performance exemplified the very definition of the term ‘supporting actor.’ The King’s Speech wouldn’t be as good as it is without Colin Firth, but it’d be nothing without Geoffrey Rush, who was also the first to commit to the film.
Best Actress:
o Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
o Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
o Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
X Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
o Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Having seen each performance except Nicole Kidman’s in Rabbit Hole, I can say again that this is another solid line-up by the Academy. My only nit-pick is Annette Bening was anything but the lead in The Kids Are All Right, a comedy-drama with an outstanding ensemble cast. She should have Hailee Steinfeld’s Supporting Actress nod – and vice versa – since Steinfeld was in every scene of True Grit. Now that I’ve got that aside, I will say that Jennifer Lawrence gave a star-making performance in Winter’s Bone, but the attention and open doors her career has received may be all the reward she’ll get. Michelle Williams continues to prove that something incredible can come from a primetime teen soap (in her case, Dawson’s Creek) with her remarkable performance in Blue Valentine. But will it be enough to beat out the more mainstream Portman, who was already awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? It’s a strong possibility, as is Bening’s win, but I doubt it.
Best Actor:
o Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
o Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
X Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
o Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
o James Franco (127 Hours)
I’ve gotta point out two things about this category. First, after all the attention Mark Whalberg received for The Fighter, it was a bit of a surprise to me that Javier Bardem, whose performance in a mixed-reviewed film I’ve heard next to no buzz about, knocked him out of the ring for this honor. Regardless, I don’t think either would’ve won. Secondly, like Annette Bening, Jeff Bridges should’ve been nominated for a supporting award and is only placed here for political maneuvering. Most of the attention for the lead actor awards during this season has been on Colin Firth, who gave a great performance in The King’s Speech – and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins this year since he lost last year to Jeff Bridges. However, the actor who gave the best performance – even better than Firth – this year was Jesse Eisenberg. I can’t fault Firth’s performance; it just comes to a matter of which role demanded the most. Eisenberg bravely portrayed a version of a living figure – and that version was complex and very challenging. The result was a man whose character and intentions have been interpreted in different ways and debated by many people. Eisenberg, a man who previously taught us to limber up before encountering zombies, gave us the most surprising performance of the year and perhaps the most intriguing character, too.
Best Director:
o Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
o David O. Russell (The Fighter)
o Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
X David Fincher (The Social Network)
o Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Here’s a list full of modern legends and distinct voices on the rise. Word has it that Russell has directed his best film yet, but his work probably won’t beat this year’s competition. Tom Hooper is an essential part of a film that has a huge Oscar campaign currently in full force. Aronofsky and the Coens are very distinct storytellers who almost always bring out incredible performances from their actors. The same can easily be said about Fincher, a man who is known for tasking his cast with dozens of takes for each scene. In this case, Fincher made the better film and deserves the continued accolade – which leads me to…
Best Picture:
o 127 Hours
o Black Swan
o The Fighter
o Inception
o The Kids Are All Right
o The King’s Speech
X The Social Network
o Toy Story 3
o True Grit
o Winter’s Bone
Unlike last year’s roster, which included such far-fetched nominees as The Blind Side and District 9, every film this year deserves and was expected to receive its nod. However, it still comes down to a shorter list of likely contenders. This year’s “mainstream crowd-pleaser vs. important film” battle seems to be between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. The King’s Speech has a strong campaign in support of its win and it recently won the Best Picture award from the Producers Guild, an honor that often serves as an indication of which film will win the Oscar. The King’s Speech is most certainly one of the year’s best films. But The Social Network is the year’s greatest film. I’ve already heaped my own praise on this film, even giving it my first and (so far) only 10/10 rating. Where The King’s Speech is an inspirational biopic, The Social Network is so much more. Its loss to the former would be comparable to the Crash / Brokeback Mountain upset of 2006, the differences being neither of this year’s films have to do with racism or homosexuality and The King’s Speech is actually a great film. It’s just not the better film.
Now here’s some interesting stats about this year’s nominees.
This year there are no less than ten (10) first-time nominees: Darren Aronofsky (shockingly), Christian Bale (also shocking), Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, John Hawkes, Tom Hooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Mark Ruffalo, David O. Russell, Hailee Steinfeld, and Jacki Weaver.
There are nine (9) nominees who’ve been nominated before, but yet to win: Amy Adams, Annette Bening, Helena Bonham Carter, David Fincher, Colin Firth, Melissa Leo, Natalie Portman, Jeremy Renner, and Michelle Williams.
The Coen Brothers are the only nominees who’ve earned more than one Oscar in their career. How many? Four. They’ve also been nominated six additional times since 1996.
By my count The King's Speech will walk away with 1 out of 7 awards it's nominated for, True Grit will take 1 out of 5, Black Swan and Toy Story 3 will both walk away with 1 out of 3 awards, Inception may take 2 out of 3 awards, and The Social Network will take the cake with up to 5 out of 5 awards. Bear in mind there are six other awards I did not cover that these films are nominated for.
My reviews of 127 Hours, Blue Valentine, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone are still available if you want more of my thoughts on those films.
The Academy Awards will be hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway on Sunday, February 27, 2011.